Summary: Stratfor describes the next phase of China’s expansion and its likely consequences. China’s political and environmental problems are typical of what global growth will create during the next several decades. We must learn to manage this process better as we go from today’s 7 billion people to the almost inevitable 10 billion by 2050. Failure will wreck the world with some combination of war, pollution, and habitat destruction.27 September 2017
Stratfor describes a paradise lost to China’s ambition
Summary: Stratfor describes the next phase of China’s expansion and its likely consequences. China’s political and environmental problems are typical of what global growth will create during the next several decades. We must learn to manage this process better as we go from today’s 7 billion people to the almost inevitable 10 billion by 2050. Failure will wreck the world with some combination of war, pollution, and habitat destruction.Climate Risks Grow For Emerging Asia If U.S. Exits Paris Accord
by Dan Steinbock, Difference Group
If America does withdraw from the Paris climate agreement, emerging Asia will pay the highest price.
As I left Manila recently, tropical storm Isang passed the Batanes area in northern Philippines. When I flew to Guangzhou, the low-pressure area morphed into a tropical depression southeast to Taiwan and then into a typhoon in the South China Sea. On August 23, Hato’s eye was directly over Hong Kong as rapid intensification turned it into a category 3-equivalent typhoon. Days later, Hato had left behind 26 people killed, and damages amounting to $1.9 billion in mainland China.
7 Cybersecurity Questions Every Leader Should Ask
Kimberly A. Whitler
I recently interviewed the former CIO for the White House (under the Bush administration), Theresa Payton, about why marketers must start engaging in cybersecurity before crises like the recent Equifax cybersecurity incident emerge. As the current CEO of Fortalice Solutions, a cybersecurity and intelligence consulting firm that helps businesses and government organizations protect themselves from emerging threats, I turned to Payton to help indentify the seven cybersecurity questions every business leader should be asking.Facebook Faces a New World as Officials Rein In a Wild Web
By JONAH M. KESSEL and PAUL MOZUR
They marched him to a police station and made their demand: Hand over your Facebook password. Mr. Tuan, a computer engineer, had recently written a poem on the social network called “Mother’s Lullaby,” which criticized how the communist country was run.
One line read, “One century has passed, we are still poor and hungry, do you ask why?”
BACK ON THE PLAYGROUND: RETURNING TO IRAQ, EIGHT YEARS LATER
SCOTT COOPER
Revisiting the location of significant moments in your life unleashes a flow of memories. Walking the halls of your high school, you recall your glory days. But you also see how the place has changed. The trophy case of state championships has been moved. Mrs. Johnson has retired, and her venerated classroom is now occupied by someone else. At once memories long buried are unearthed. You are disoriented by how different things seem from what you remembered.Can the US Military Re-Invent the Microchip for the AI Era?
It’s one thing to get a bunch of transistors on an integrated circuit to crunch numbers, even very large ones. But what the brain does is far more difficult. Processing vast amounts of visual data for use by huge, multi-cellular organism is very different from the narrow calculations of conventional math. The algorithms that will drive tomorrow’s autonomous cars, planes, and programs will be incredibly data-intensive, with needs well beyond what conventional chips were ever designed for. This is one reason for the hype surrounding quantum computing and neurosynaptic chips.
Af-Pak, India and Beyond: The New Underpinnings of Washington's South Asia Policy
Puneet Ahluwalia, Prateek Joshi
Russia Blends Cyber Attacks with Information War
STEFAN MEISTER
Russia has shown it is both willing and capable of using cyber capabilities to interfere in the West’s democratic elections. With the German elections coming up on September 24th, it is likely Russia will again – much like the United States and France – seek to sow confusion and distrust intended to weaken the foundation of liberal democracy – its electoral process. The Cipher Brief’s Levi Maxey spoke with Stefan Meister, the head of the Robert Bosch Center for Central and Eastern Europe, Russia and Central Asia at the German Council on Foreign Relations, about what tactics Russia will likely employ against Germany and what it ultimately seeks to accomplish in its efforts.
War Books: Jacob Olidort on How to Read
By Jacob Olidort
“How” to read seems a strange and perhaps even condescending way to propose a book list. However, given that reading takes time, and that those who might have the most use for good reads often have little time and long lists to go through, as well as many outlets to consult (including blogs, tweets, recommendations), it might be more useful to reflect on how I go about choosing what books I read and how I consume information.
Is India's Demonetization a Failure?
By Aswin Mannepalli
Data released by the Reserve Bank of India indicates that demonetization has failed to flush out black money.
While short-term indicators show that the Indian government has failed to meet stated objectives, demonetization could be an economic success in the long term.
When Prime Minister Modi announced plans to demonetize ₹500 and ₹1000 notes on November 8, 2016, he said removing black (undeclared) money from the economy would combat both terrorism and corruption.
How do ceasefire violations in Jammu and Kashmir actually happen?
Sushil Aaron
Are India-Pakistan Peace Talks Worth a Damn?
ASHLEY J. TELLIS
The international community’s routine call for continuous India-Pakistan dialogue is not only misguided but also counterproductive. This entreaty, which often follows major Pakistani-supported terrorist attacks in India, fails to recognize that the security competition between the two nations is not actually driven by discrete, negotiable differences. Rather, the discord is rooted in long-standing ideological, territorial, and power-political antagonisms that are fueled by Pakistan’s irredentism, its army’s desire to subvert India’s ascendency as a great power and exact revenge for past Indian military victories, and its aspirations to be treated on par with India despite their huge differences in capabilities, achievements, and prospects.DOWNLOAD THE PDF
Pakistan’s foremost political family fights for survival
AT A pre-election rally, a procession of cars and pick-up trucks squeezed through the narrow streets of Lahore. The crowd sweated, cheered, trod on each other’s feet and rained rose petals on the parade. All that was missing was the candidate. Kulsoom Nawaz Sharif, the former first lady of Pakistan, was in London undergoing cancer treatment. She did not campaign at all, leaving that job to her more charismatic daughter, Maryam Nawaz.
The Madman Theory of North Korea
By Steve Coll
In 1969, Richard Nixon, about eight months into his Presidency, grew frustrated with the North Vietnamese leadership. The President wanted to negotiate an exit from the Vietnam War, but his adversary’s terms were unyielding. Nixon thought that he needed the Soviet Union to pressure North Vietnam; he also believed that Leonid Brezhnev would act only if he was convinced that the U.S. was about to do something crazy. In late October, Nixon ordered an operation code-named Giant Lance. B-52 bombers loaded with atomic weapons took off from bases in California and Washington State and headed toward the Soviet Union, then flew in loops above the polar ice cap.
The Role of Women in Islamic State-led Terrorism
By Isaac Kfir
In August, a Jakarta court jailed 28-year-old Dian Yulia Novi for seven-and-a-half years for plotting to carry out a suicide attack outside the Presidential Palace during the changing of the guard, an event that is popular with tourists and locals. Novi, who is currently pregnant, admitted to the plot so the three judges did not heed the prosecution call for a 10 year sentence.
Novi’s conviction highlighted the increasing number of women carrying out terrorist attacks for the Islamic State terror group. In 2016, a cell of radicalised French women planned an attack outside Notre Dame Cathedral.
Facebook, Compromised: How Russia Manipulated U.S. Voters
By Sophia Porotsky
Conceptually, Information warfare is by no means a new concept. However, the broad reach of social media has created an entirely new and highly effective avenue for Russian ‘active measures’ to penetrate into and influence the minds of the American public. Active measures “employ a three-pronged approach that attempts to shape foreign policy…state-to-people, People-To-People, and state-to-state…The Russian government today uses the state-to-people and people-to-people approaches on social media and the internet.”
When the Military Does Battle With Nature
James Stavridis
Although we just watched two enormous hurricanes rip through Texas and Florida, it is worth remembering that Mother Nature can easily surpass the biggest conventional weapons in our arsenal, unleashing destruction over vast areas. Fortunately, we have a force capable of responding to such disasters in the U.S. military. As I often said when I led disaster-relief efforts in Latin America and the Caribbean, "We are very good at launching missiles, but we can launch angels as well."Gauging the status quo
M. K. Narayanan
26 September 2017
Workshop on Improving Understanding of the Roots and Trajectories of Violent Extremism
A Workshop on Improving Understanding of the Roots and Trajectories of Violent Extremism was held at Washington on June 20- 21, 2017.
Sample observations of individual participants on carrying out and combating violent extremism:
Foreign fighters who have been recruited in distant countries or regions have generally been well-educated young men, often recruited in groups, and often seeking recognition of their noble purpose rather than remaining anonymous with no purpose.
Many foreign fighters have become disenchanted with their status and try to return home, a challenge that can lead to execution. Some have married women from abroad, and wives often have an easier time leaving with their children than do foreign fighters.
Extremist groups need territory and finances. While territory can be lost and finances can be difficult to arrange, in the Middle East there are always new areas for activities.
Understanding local context is essential to combat Jihadist movements.
Often urban residents dominate disaffected populations, prisons provide many Jihadist recruits, and small countries are most open to migrants with unknown intentions.
A long-term regional security framework is important if the strategies of the western countries in addressing violent extremism are to be effective in the long term.
The impact of social media is a priority area for research, although it is difficult to come up with reasonable hypotheses that can be effectively tested.
Research often threatens religious leaders, increasing risks for the researchers.
Voter turnout may be a useful indicator of future governance trends.
Access to water is of spiraling importance in the Middle East, and cross-border approaches to increase water availability can at times help reduce political tensions.
Differentiating between first, second, and third generation migrants is often of critical importance in analyzing attitudes relevant to violent extremism.
Jihadists are probably fewer than 100,000 in number, with annual budgets of less than $10 million. Western governments have spent hundreds of billions of dollars in combating the Jihadists, and it is difficult to identify our successes. What are we doing wrong? (An unanswered question raised at the end of workshop by one participant.) Sample observations of individual participants on organizational and procedural issues:
Joint U.S., Russian, and French efforts provide a good basis for a broad range of research and analytical activities. The CNRS international research network across North Africa and the Middle East is an important asset. Decades of Soviet/Russian involvement in ethnic and religious relationships in Central Asia and adjacent areas can be very informative. The heavy U.S. military presence in the Middle East often influences personal perspectives.
Information about well-documented, but little-known, research and about availability of rare but insightful documents can be useful to scholars around the world.
Interactions between residents in areas in turmoil and local authorities that build mutual understanding and trust may be difficult to arrange but can have high payoff.
General discussions during annual meetings of experts from the U.S., Russia, and France can be valuable, but such meetings can also benefit from reports on specific field investigations of mutual interest—and ideally jointly organized investigations.
Providing international and national officials with results of well-designed research programs, and particularly research involving on-the-ground observations, deserves high priority.
*** Himalayan Impasse: How China Would Fight an Indian Border Conflict
By: Kevin McCauley
At the end of August, Chinese and Indian troops both pulled back from the Doklam region in Bhutan after weeks of tense posturing. The face off began in June when Chinese construction crews accompanied by soldiers began building a road. The area is sensitive to Indian national interests not only because of its ally Bhutan, but also due to area’s proximity to a narrow corridor connecting eastern India with the rest of the country. Beijing repeatedly ratcheted up the messaging to India, including the release of a Ministry of Foreign Affairs legal justification of China’s territorial claims against India (China Daily, August 3, 2017). If the two sides decide to face off again, forces on both sides will need to contend with the difficult mountain terrain and complex weather conditions. To prepare for such a contingency, both India and China have invested significantly in units capable of mountain and high-altitude warfare. An examination of the Chinese Military’s doctrine and training of such units provides important insights into how such a conflict would be conducted.
*** ISIS'S EXPANDING CAMPAIGN IN EUROPE
By Jennifer Cafarella with Jason Zhou
Reviving Commercial Development of Afghanistan’s Aynak Copper Resource
BY: William Byrd
Rampant looting of Afghanistan’s medium-sized and smaller mineral resources is ongoing, but the major Aynak copper deposit languishes, having made only negligible progress toward commercial exploitation since the contract was signed in 2008.
The main problem is that the Chinese consortium awarded the contract made unrealistic promises that would be impossible or highly unprofitable to fulfill, resulting in a need to renegotiate contract terms in its favor, which the Afghan government has been reluctant to go along with.
Weekly Graphic: Turkey and a Dangerous Power Vacuum in Northwestern Syria
Turkish forces recently began massing on the southwestern border with Syria. As many as 80 military vehicles, including an unknown number of tanks and medical aid trucks, were dispatched to a part of Hatay province that’s approximately 30 miles (50 kilometers) from the border. Another convoy of an unspecified number of military vehicles was reportedly sent to another area of Hatay, just 2 miles from Syria’s border, and a third collection of 20 army vehicles was seen close to the border near Bab al-Hawa in Syria, about 7 miles from Reyhanli.
“INDIA IS OUR BROTHER, CHINA IS OUR FRIEND”: NAVIGATING GREAT POWER RIVALRY IN SOUTHERN ASIA
ROHAN MUKHERJEE AND DARREN J. LIM
The recently resolved military standoff between Indian and Chinese troops along the border separating India, China, and Bhutan has drawn fresh attention to the predicament of smaller countries against the backdrop of rising Sino-Indian competition in Southern Asia. Border disputes notwithstanding, China’s deepening economic inroads in the region have created new strategic dynamics in a region dominated by India.Meet the 17-Year-Old Who Hacked the Air Force
BY JACK CORRIGAN
Jack Cable is 17 years old. With a thin build and large, square glasses, he looks like any unassuming high school senior from the Chicago suburbs. Except he’s a military-grade hacker.
How China's Social Media Giant Compares To Facebook
Written by Felix Richter
-- this post authored by Felix Richter with contributions by Econintersect
Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.
Platforms such as QQ, Qzone and WeChat in particular have hundreds of millions of users and, just as Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, they’re all owned by the same company. Their parent company Tencent became China’s largest tech company in terms of market capitalization last year, and is currently going back and forth with e-commerce behemoth Alibaba in the race for this title.
As our chart illustrates, there's no need for Tencent to shy away from comparisons with the world's largest social networking company. While Tencent's social networking and messaging services have yet to reach the billion-user mark, its financial results are nearly on par with Facebook's. In fact, until as recently as 2015, Tencent was more profitable than Facebook, and has been for many years prior. From an investing standpoint, both companies have been doing great over the past 12 months: Tencent's stock price soared more than 60 percent since August 2016, Facebook's is up by 35 percent.
25 September 2017
Pakistan's nukes stored at nine different locations, at risk of landing up with terrorists
Today’s Times of India has published a news item on
There is nothing new in it. I have posted the original paper by Hans M. Kristensen & Robert S. Norris on 18 Sep 2017 in my blog site at http://strategicstudyindia.blogspot.in/2017/09/worldwide-deployments-of-nuclear.html
I have a feeling that these issues are deliberately thrown up whenever Pakistan in cornered. For example the recent example of the statement of our Foreign Minister Mrs Sushma Swaraj in United Nations.
What do your think.
http://strategicstudyindia.blogspot.in/2017/09/worldwide-deployments-of-nuclear.html
Text of Sushma Swaraj's speech at U.N. General Assembly
Sushma Swaraj addressed the 72nd session of United Nations General Assembly on September 23, 2017.
Minister of External Affairs Sushma Swaraj addressed the 72nd session of United Nations General Assembly on September 23, 2017.
Mr. President
Let me begin by offering my heartiest congratulations on your election as President of the 72nd United Nations General Assembly. For those of us fortunate to represent our nations as Foreign Minister this is a particularly happy event: one of us has this honour.
Mr. President
2: India welcomes your efforts to place people at the heart of international diplomacy as you shape policy and lend direction to world affairs from your august chair. I thank you for the theme you have chosen: ‘Focusing on people: Striving for peace and a decent life on a sustainable planet’. People, peace, decency, sustenance and focus define a noble objective.
Mr. President
3: The United Nations was established for the welfare, security, harmony, rights and economic progress of the people of our world. India fully supports your efforts in this great mission.
4: I had spoken before this Assembly last year as well. It is a year that has seen much change both in this Assembly and in the world it represents. We have a new Secretary General at the United Nations. He is determined to prepare and strengthen the United Nations to meet the challenges of the 21st century. We welcome his efforts, and see in him a leader who can give practical shape to a vision.
23 September 2017
Major U.S. Military Bases Near North Korea
-- this post authored by Niall McCarthy
Amid rising tensions with Pyongyang, U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted that American forces are "locked and loaded" to respond to an attack by North Korea.
While the U.S. military presence in South Korea is well placed defensively, any offensive strike against the North would require the deployment of a huge number of military assets, and the Pentagon has confirmed that no such deployment has taken place.
Around 23,500 U.S. troops are stationed in South Korea and nearly 40,000 more are stationed in Japan. The following infographic provides an overview of the key U.S. military bases in the region that would prove indispensable in any conflict with North Korea.
Notable installations include Osan and Kunsan Air Bases in South Korea, where American A-10 and F-16 aircraft are permanently based. Yokosuka in Japan is home to the only permanently forward-deployed U.S. aircraft carrier, the USS Ronald Reagan. The carrier strike group and its escorting destroyer group are some of the most potent U.S. military assets in the region.
You will find more statistics at Statista.21 September 2017
SALUTE TO THE ARMY MEDICAL FRATERNITY

Our
AQMG was an outstanding professional from EME. My Staff Captain (Q) was
ACA from NDA and belonged to Sikh regiment. Once we complained to our
AQMG that why does he did not leave any job for us as he used to do
everything himself. He smiled and said “why to bother you when I can
handle all this”. And boy, Lt Col Umesh could handle anything.


Capt
KP Singh from Madras Regiment was staff captain Q in the then HQ 16
Sector in Nagaum. He was fiercely loyal to his paltans and extracted
everything possible from us by his professional work, requests and
sometimes cajoling so that his troops didn’t suffer. In 2013, he was
commanding the Siachen Brigade. I have lost track of him after that.
Our
DADH was Lt Col PK Som. Som Dada was lean and thin and was oldest
serving officer in the Div sector. Obviously he had no maibap. He used
to tell us stories about how the GOC was shot and the Col GS designate
was killed in the middle of old Baramulla town and how difficult it was
to extricate the GOC and how he was ultimately evacuated at night to
Srinagar. On popular demand he was our permanent Mess Secretary. Somehow
by cajoling, requesting, brow beating the supply depot and the CO of
ASC battalion and Military Firm he kept us very well fed. He had his own
way of getting excellent cooks from somewhere to give us those
delicious Kashmiri meat preparations on Sundays. When the medical
officer at MI room went on leave he used to officiate in his place also.
Our
GOC was a very frugal eater, through out the day he used to have couple
of cups of soup/kahwah and one odd apple or some other fruit. He never
went back from office during lunch. We were at liberty to go and come
back to office as per our convenience. But the GOC from 8 GR would
always have his quota of two thullow rakshi in the evening. No wonder
all Q branch officers, JDS Rawat, Som dada and others were avid fan of
Buddha Baba.

It
was a ghastly sight in MI room. There were grey brain material on the
floor, broken limbs and blood were everywhere. It was twilight hour, Som
Dada suddenly shouted an expletive and said without looking behind
“move away from the window, you are obstructing light”. I saw a shadow
silently move away. It was Rostum Nanavatty, the GOC. After a quick bit
of first aid activities and packing up, the casualties were sent on fast
track to BH Srinagar. The BH Srinagar had a fearsome reputation that
anybody who reaches there alive would never die. In the most trying
circumstances the BH always lived up to its reputation. The Surgeons
themselves donated blood number of times when there was no time.
It
was a textbook demonstration of professionalism of the highest order.
The job had to be done and was done with professional elan. Later on
there was no hankering after awards or citations. A job had to be done
and that’s it.
I
was posted at Katihar known as Kala Pani of Bihar in 1983. One of my
Jawans with his wife met with a scooter accident at Katihar town. The
lady had severe stomach injury. I do not wish to describe the inside of
Katihar district hospital. Suffice is to say, the attending doctor did
not even know how to insert drip. My nursing assistant did that job. The
attending doctors said that the journey of 230 kms to BH Bengdubi
cannot be withstood by the patient. She had internal hemorrhage. Seeing
the condition of the hospital, I took a command decision. I sent her in
our 1 ton ambulance with our nursing assistant and oxygen cylinder
directly to BH Bengdubi. I spoke to the hospital authority about the
casualty.
Immediately
on arrival she was wheeled into the OT. There was internal injury.
During the operation the Anesthetist shouted “I can’t keep the
patient!”. The surgeon kept the gauges inside and stopped the operation.
After transfusing lot of blood, when the patient’s condition stabilized
a bit after two days she was operated upon again. The lady survived.
Once
we woke up in the morning as some sound was coming from our kitchen
garden when we peeped from the first floor balcony we saw couple of
elephants munching away the banana plants to glory. They were so happy.
The
Adm Commandant was a Signals officer. He was the proud owner of a well
fed, well groomed German Shephard dog. In the evening he was as usual
walking the dog. The dog was not chained and following him. Suddenly he
realized the dog was not there. The leopards are very fond of dog. The
good Colonel could not even realize that his dog was taken away.
After
all the Adm Commandant was not amused. He contacted the forest
department people and a trap in cage was laid. The bait was a live goat
provided by our supply depot. The leopard came but the goat died of
heart attack. It was below the dignity of the leopard to eat dead
animal. He did not enter the cage.
The
next day a strong live goat was procured from the local market. The
trap was set. The leopard came at night and the shutters went down.
In
the morning it was a scene. The leopard was angry, trying to get out of
the cage it had injured itself. He was bleeding, snarling. The whole of
Binnaguri including all the tea garden workers lined up to see how the
caged animal was being taken out. One felt sorry for the magnificent
animal. Leopard can get used to changed environment very fast and are
survivors. I suppose even today if you travel at night by road in the
route Chalsa - Odlabari - Mong Pong - Coronation Bridge, you can have a
sight of this beautiful animal.
The
MH had medical, surgical and gynecologist specialist. When the surgical
specialist would go on leave the gynecologist used to officiate and
vice versa. One of my Jawan’s wife was admitted in MH. She had been
complaining of stomach pain for a long time. There was a circus show at
Banarhat nearby. The gynecologist was officiating as surgical specialist
who was taking out his car for going to the circus show with his wife
and children in the evening. There was a persistent ring in his
telephone. Very reluctantly he went inside the house picked up the
phone. The nursing officer on duty wanted him to come to the hospital
immediately. The doctor was slightly irritated and said I will come
directly to the MH after the show but the nursing officer was adamant
and firm and insisted that he must come immediately. The doctor sent his
disappointed wife and children inside his home and went to MH. He
carried out an operation immediately. When I went to the MH he showed me
the rotten putrid stinking part of the intestine that was taken out.
The lady survived although she had to take bland diet throughout her
life. Lt Col Rana told me that because of this nursing officer the lady
is alive today.
The
doctors and the nursing staff carry out some impossible tasks at
extreme odds in far flunk frontiers of the country to keep our armed
forces and their families safe and fit. No amount of praise is
sufficient enough for them.
I salute the men and women of Army Medical Corps and Military Nursing Service.
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