Russia Is Far from Defeated

CEPA | Sofia Slonovska

Russian military forces continue to sustain high-intensity combat operations across Ukraine despite extensive Western sanctions and heavy attrition in personnel and armored vehicles. Moscow has successfully reoriented its defense industrial base toward continuous wartime production, leveraging dual-use technology imports and sanctions evasion networks to maintain artillery ammunition, missile, and drone output.

The Kremlin's ability to absorb economic pressures while expanding its frontline troop deployments demonstrates enduring institutional resilience and operational flexibility. This sustained industrial mobilization allows Russian command structures to pursue a strategy of protracted attrition, threatening European defense readiness and NATO's eastern security architecture over the long term. Moscow's rearmament trajectory indicates that its strategic objectives extend beyond immediate territorial gains in Ukraine to include re-establishing regional dominance and challenging Western security guarantees. Consequently, Western allies face increasing pressure to scale up defense production, enhance air defense capabilities, and commit to long-term military support to prevent a broader shift in the regional balance of power.

Comment

Continuous multi-shift operations across Rostec manufacturing facilities like Uralvagonzavod reflect Russia's structural capacity to replace heavy armour losses despite Western export controls. This surge in industrial throughput enables artillery units to sustain high daily consumption rates of 152mm ammunition along the Donbas line of contact. Such sustained material regeneration mitigates frontline vulnerability to combat attrition during prolonged combat operations. Manufacturing rate rather than pre-war stockpile depth thereby determines the trajectory of sustained campaign endurance.

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