What Iranians Really Think About the War—And Their Regime

National Interest  |  Ilan Berman

A July 2026 survey of over 31,000 respondents conducted by polling organization GAMAAN indicates that 40 percent of Iranians view ongoing US-Israeli military operations as a form of humanitarian intervention. Despite nearly half a year of conflict, American President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu retain substantial approval ratings of 44 percent and 51 percent, respectively, within the country.

This alignment stems directly from the fallout of the January 2026 anti-regime protests, which mobilized an estimated 14 million citizens across Iran before encountering extreme state violence. Tehran countered the opposition wave by executing the longest internet blackout in history and killing over 36,000 activists, while intensifying systemic clampdowns on religious minorities and social freedoms. While active diplomatic negotiations between Washington and Tehran now prioritize reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz and addressing nuclear ambitions, persistent domestic grievances demonstrate that the potential for fundamental internal political transformation remains intact.

Comment

Assessing target-nation civilian sentiment during active air campaigns increasingly depends on virtual private network telemetry and encrypted digital sampling. The analytical reliance on survey mechanisms like GAMAAN demonstrates how traditional human intelligence collection in Tehran remains severely constrained by internal security services. These remote polling vectors capture societal rift lines that tactical SIGINT intercepts and battle damage assessments cannot independently detect. Digital circumvention metrics provide intelligence agencies with a structured proxy for regime vulnerability when denied-area access prevents direct ground observation.

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