The Importance of Revisiting Deterrence in the Space Domain

Small Wars Journal | Zoha Naser

The United Kingdom's Defence Investment Plan, published in late June 2026, designated space as a contested frontline requiring integrated deterrence across multi-domain military operations. However, existing doctrine—including the 2025 Strategic Defence Review and Joint Doctrine Publication 0-40—fails to operationalize space deterrence or address its distinct structural vulnerabilities. Formulating viable deterrence in orbit requires separating conventional space-enabled capabilities, such as early warning and command architectures, from the protection of physical and digital space infrastructure against direct attack.

Strategic planners face unique domain complexities, including dual-purpose technologies like rendezvous and proximity operations, commercial proliferation such as SpaceX Starlink constellations, and ground-segment vulnerabilities highlighted by the 2022 Viasat cyberattack. Establishing credible space deterrence also depends on rapid attribution capabilities, clear operational red lines, and multilateral coalition frameworks like Operation Olympic Defender to effectively mitigate natural orbital hazards, prevent strategic miscalculation, and signal retaliatory resolve against hostile anti-satellite counterspace operations.

Comment

Conceptualising space deterrence through classic denial and punishment mechanisms overlooks the inherent dual-use ambiguity of rendezvous and proximity operations. Existing frameworks like Joint Doctrine Publication 0-40 treat orbital infrastructure primarily as an extension of terrestrial command networks rather than an independent operational theater with distinct thresholds of harm. Multilateral arrangements such as Operation Olympic Defender offer collective surveillance integration, yet fail to establish shared operational definitions for what constitutes an act of space aggression. This doctrinal gap leaves coalition partners vulnerable to sub-threshold counterspace tactics that bypass formal collective defence triggers without incurring clear retaliatory costs.

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