What We Know About the U.S.-Saudi Nuclear Deal

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace  |  Jane Darby Menton, Andrew Leber

The United States and Saudi Arabia have announced a civil nuclear cooperation agreement that departs from the "gold standard" by not requiring Riyadh to forgo uranium enrichment or accept the highest International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards. This bilateral 123 agreement aims to secure a multi-billion-dollar partnership for American companies like Westinghouse while shutting out Russian and Chinese competitors.

Historically, Washington insisted on strict nonproliferation protocols in the Middle East, but the current geopolitical friction with Iran and the ongoing Red Sea blockade have shifted strategic priorities. Under the proposed terms, the kingdom would commit to purchasing American nuclear technology, though President Donald Trump has recently conditioned the deal on Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords to normalize relations with Israel. This linkage threatens to derail the thirty-year pact, raising concerns among nonproliferation experts and regional allies like the United Arab Emirates, which may now seek to renegotiate its own more restrictive nuclear terms.

Comment

By diluting the non-proliferation standards previously established in the 2009 U.S.-UAE 123 Agreement, Washington risks undermining its credibility as a normative anchor for global nuclear commerce. This concession to Riyadh creates a precedent that complicates security relationships with other regional partners, who may now demand similar bilateral exemptions to maintain strategic parity. Consequently, the dilution of these safeguards could incentivise Abu Dhabi to invoke its own proportionality clauses, fracturing the unified regulatory front the United States has spent decades constructing in the Persian Gulf.

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