The Gulf’s China Problem: Beijing Wants Trade but Not Responsibility

Foreign Affairs | Mohammed Alsudairi, Andrea Ghiselli, Aaron Glasserman

Gulf Arab states are reassessing their strategic reliance on China following Beijing’s refusal to leverage its influence over Tehran during the ongoing Iran war. Despite significant economic integration, including nearly $300 billion in annual trade and critical energy partnerships, China has consistently avoided security commitments, prioritizing a non-interventionist stance even as regional stability deteriorates.

The failure of Beijing to restrain Iranian aggression or protect Gulf interests has shattered expectations that Chinese economic expansion would naturally evolve into a security guarantee. Consequently, regional powers are forced to navigate a precarious security landscape, balancing a volatile United States against the necessity of developing independent defense capabilities or alternative partnerships. This shift marks a transition toward a transactional relationship where China remains a vital commercial partner for technology and investment, yet remains fundamentally unwilling to assume the political or military burdens required to maintain the regional security order.

Comment

The reliance on Chinese-supplied geospatial intelligence by Iranian proxies highlights a critical vulnerability in the Gulf’s digital infrastructure, where dual-use technology integration often outpaces security vetting. This intelligence-sharing dynamic suggests that Beijing’s commercial penetration, particularly through firms like Huawei, creates a persistent back-door risk that complicates the interoperability of Gulf militaries with US-led coalitions. Historically, this mirrors the Cold War-era challenges faced by non-aligned states attempting to leverage competing superpowers for internal development while maintaining sovereignty. The absence of a formal security architecture from Beijing forces Gulf states to accelerate indigenous drone and robotics production to mitigate the risk of future supply chain disruptions. Furthermore, the Omani proposal for a regional security framework involving Iran ignores the fundamental lack of trust inherent in the current maritime environment. Without a credible multilateral mechanism, the reliance on US-provided systems like the Aegis Combat System remains the only viable deterrent against Iranian ballistic missile threats.

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