Whatever Happened to the Mecca Pact?

Ghoshworld | Bobby Ghosh

On Thursday Saudi-backed Yemeni forces withdrew from the strategic Red Sea port of Mocha, enabling the Houthi rebels to take control of the town and put the Bab el-Mandeb strait at risk. The fact that the Houthi rebels have obtained control of the town directly threatens the Saudi Arabia East-West pipeline, since the kingdom depends on this pipeline to avoid using the largely closed Strait of Hormuz.

The fact that Mocha has been lost reveals the operational shortcomings of the recently concluded Mecca Pact Pact, a mutual defence agreement involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan. Even though the pact includes mutual defence provisions, neither Ankara nor Islamabad has taken steps to back Riyadh when it came under attack by Houthi missiles and drones. Pakistan has left its troops already deployed without acting. This restraint is due to a wish to prevent

Comment

The quick breakdown of Saudi defences in Mocha shows how weak the Mecca Pact is when it comes to acting as a real mutual defence arrangement. Although the treaty was intended to be similar to NATO's Article 5, the fact that Turkey and Pakistan have refused to take action against the Houthi forces shows the shortcomings of security partnerships among non-Western countries. The fact that Islamabad has decided to keep its squadron of JF-17 fighters on the ground while the Houthis are carrying out attacks proves that the other countries in the region put their bilateral relations with Tehran before they consider Riyadh's security. This lack of action proves that the Mecca Pact mainly serves as a diplomatic stance rather than as an operational alliance.

The operational paralysis causes Saudi Arabia to have to pay higher security costs along its East-West pipeline. Since Turkish and Pakistani naval forces are not available to guard the Bab el-Mandeb, Riyadh continues to rely completely on the US Central Command for protection of its crude oil shipments in the Red Sea. As a result, the breakdown of the Mecca Pact confirms Washington's position as the only guarantor of Gulf maritime traffic, leaving the kingdom exposed to possible changes in the US Congress.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If the Mecca Pact doesn't result in a joint military response to attacks by the Houthi rebels on Saudi infrastructure, does the agreement then still have any deterrent effect against Iran or does it become nothing more than a symbolic diplomatic tool?

The evidence currently available shows that the Mecca Pact will be unable to demonstrate credible deterrence unless it has a unified command structure and common perceptions of the threat posed by Iran. Although the agreement does give some diplomatic advantage, the fact that Ankara and Islamabad place their bilateral relations with Tehran above everything else means that the pact will stay merely a symbolic political instrument and not become an actual military alliance.

Share your assessment in the comments below.

To read in details click here