The Strait Escape

GZERO Media | Natalie Johnson, Tim Rickard

Six months into the Iran war, Middle Eastern oil exporters are fast-tracking pipeline projects to bypass the Tehran-strangled Strait of Hormuz. The United Arab Emirates is doubling its Habshan-Fujairah pipeline capacity to export directly to the Gulf of Oman by 2027, while Iraq has revived plans for a 1-million-barrel-per-day pipeline to Jordan's Red Sea port of Aqaba.

These emergency bypass initiatives reflect a critical regional effort to secure alternative export corridors as maritime transit through the Persian Gulf remains highly vulnerable. Baghdad is also negotiating to resurrect dormant pipelines through Syria and Turkey to restore its pre-war export volume of 3.4 million barrels per day. Security risks persist along alternative routes. Saudi Arabia's 7-million-barrel-per-day East-West pipeline faces intense pressure from Yemen's Houthi militants in the Bab El-Mandeb Strait, forcing Riyadh to redirect crude via the Suez Canal or around Africa's Cape of Good Hope.

Comment

The rapid pivot toward overland pipeline networks like the UAE's Habshan-Fujairah pipeline demonstrates the limits of maritime choke-point security during high-intensity regional conflicts. While these terrestrial corridors offer a partial alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, they merely shift the logistical vulnerability from maritime interdiction to land-based sabotage. Riyadh's reliance on the East-West pipeline illustrates this vulnerability, as the terminal infrastructure remains within striking range of hostile actors.

Specifically, the physical security of the 750-mile East-West artery requires extensive territorial surveillance and rapid-repair capabilities that strain Saudi security forces. For instance, the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline has historically suffered prolonged shutdowns from localised attacks, proving that physical infrastructure is rarely a frictionless substitute for open sea lanes. Consequently, the operational viability of the Basra-Aqaba project will depend entirely on Jordan's ability to secure its desert eastern corridor against asymmetric threats.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If the East-West pipeline remains vulnerable to Houthi strike capabilities at its Red Sea terminus, does the overland bypass strategy actually reduce overall transit risk, or does it merely exchange a concentrated maritime threat for a distributed terrestrial one?

The pattern of recent Houthi drone and missile strikes near the Bab El-Mandeb Strait suggests that overland bypasses terminating in the Red Sea do not escape the threat envelope. Instead, this shift redistributes the security burden to terminal air defences and pipeline repair logistics, which are highly vulnerable to asymmetric saturation tactics. Consequently, the trajectory indicates that risk mitigation remains dependent on multi-layered air defence integration at the ports rather than the physical diversion of crude.

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