India’s Sheikh Hasina Dilemma

The Diplomat | Jaideep Saikia

The mass street uprising in Bangladesh in August 2024 overthrew Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, fracturing the security architecture of eastern South Asia and creating a major diplomatic crisis for India. Hasina currently lives in exile on Indian soil while a newly elected government led by Prime Minister Tarique Rahman and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party runs Dhaka.

For 15 years, New Delhi's regional foreign policy relied entirely on maintaining her stability to secure its eastern border. This strategy has now collapsed. A Bangladeshi court recently convicted Hasina in absentia for crimes against humanity, sentencing her to death and prompting Dhaka to officially demand her extradition. This legal and political development leaves Indian policymakers deeply caught between their historical alliance with the deposed leader and the urgent geopolitical necessity of engaging the new administration in Dhaka to prevent long-term regional instability and security vulnerabilities.

Comment

New Delhi’s long-term reliance on Sheikh Hasina as a singular security guarantor has exposed the structural vulnerability of India's neighbourhood policy. By tying its border security and counter-terrorism objectives in the east exclusively to the Awami League, India has alienated the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and other rising political factions in Dhaka. This personalised diplomacy leaves India with limited leverage as the newly elected administration under Tarique Rahman assumes power.

The immediate consequence of this diplomatic friction is the potential disruption of bilateral transit agreements, particularly the rail and port access routes through Chittagong and Mongla. A hostile or indifferent government in Dhaka could restrict these transit corridors, directly undermining India's Act East policy and complicating logistics for the northeastern states. Furthermore, the presence of Hasina on Indian soil will remain a persistent irritant, limiting New Delhi's ability to negotiate new security protocols with the BNP-led coalition.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If the BNP-led coalition in Dhaka decides to restrict Indian access to the Chittagong and Mongla ports, how can New Delhi maintain its logistics links to the northeastern states without relying on the narrow Siliguri Corridor?

The trajectory indicates that New Delhi would be forced to heavily subsidise and accelerate the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project through Myanmar, despite the ongoing civil war there. Alternatively, India might have to accept increased operational costs by rerouting essential cargo back through the congested Siliguri Corridor. My assessment is that the BNP-led coalition will likely leverage these transit corridors as bargaining chips to secure Hasina's extradition rather than cutting them off entirely.

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