Living Under a Lethal Sky: Myanmar’s Rakhine on Edge as Military Airstrikes on Civilians Grow

The Diplomat | Rajeev Bhattacharyya

The Myanmar military has dramatically escalated its aerial campaign against civilian populations in Rakhine State to counter rapid territorial losses to the Arakan Army. This strategic shift relies on devastating double-tap airstrikes and suicide drones to target non-combatants in liberated zones, severely compounding the humanitarian crisis and displacing thousands of villagers.

Following the 2021 coup, the junta upgraded its surveillance and unmanned capabilities to defend its remaining strongholds of Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and Manaung. Under the command of Ye Win Oo, the regime launched Operation 4926 on September 4, deploying specialized jet fighter groups to repeatedly strike identical targets. This campaign has increasingly targeted critical infrastructure. The December 2025 attack on the Mrauk U Division Hospital killed 33 people. Such strikes are common. Despite these brutal aerial offensives, Arakan Army chief Twan Mrat Naing maintains that the resistance will not succumb to military pressure.

Comment

The systematic targeting of non-combatants under Operation 4926 reveals a fundamental doctrinal shift in the Tatmadaw's approach to territorial loss. Rather than utilising airpower solely to support ground manoeuvres, the military command under Ye Win Oo is employing aerial bombardment as an independent punitive strategy. This approach aims to degrade the administrative viability of the Arakan Army in liberated townships like Ponnagyun and Mrauk U. By deliberately striking civilian infrastructure, Naypyidaw seeks to convert territorial gains by the Arakan Army into governance liabilities.

This punitive doctrine is operationalised by Ye Win Oo's command through the integration of low-cost aviation assets alongside conventional jet fighters. The deployment of motorised paragliders and gyrocopters allows the Tatmadaw to maintain persistent surveillance and execute frequent, low-signature strikes on soft targets. Furthermore, the deliberate execution of double-tap strikes at sites like the Mrauk U Division Hospital demonstrates a calculated effort to disrupt local emergency response mechanisms.

Strategic Question for Discussion

How will the Arakan Army adapt its administrative and defensive strategies if Ye Win Oo's systematic aerial punishment under Operation 4926 permanently compromises the viability of liberated urban centres like Mrauk U?

The pattern of Tatmadaw strikes suggests that the Arakan Army will be forced to decentralise its administrative offices and medical facilities into rural redoubts to mitigate aerial vulnerability. However, this dispersion will likely strain the group's ability to establish a cohesive proto-state authority in Rakhine State. Consequently, the resistance may have to rely more heavily on mobile, low-signature governance structures rather than centralised municipal institutions.

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